Telenor (TEL.OL) fair value: NOK 97.18 a share
What is one share of Telenor worth today if its net income keeps growing and the market keeps paying the multiple it has paid? Every starting value below comes from Telenor's own filings and price history. Change any of them; nothing here is a forecast or advice.
What the price says
On its own free cash flow, growing 5.0% a year and fading, valued at 8.6x in 5 years and discounted at 10%, one share of Telenor is worth about NOK 97.18: 23% below the price of 126.40. Today's price assumes 11.9% growth a year on the same assumptions.
It trades at 8.6x its free cash flow today, against a five-year median of 10.0x.
Its share count has fallen 0.6% a year over five years, buybacks that lift each share's part.
How much the answer moves
Fair value a share, NOK, for the growth rate across and the return wanted down; everything else as above.
| Return wanted | 2.0% growth | 5.0% growth | 8.0% growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | 94.54 | 106.52 | 119.69 |
| 10% | 86.25 | 97.18 | 109.19 |
| 12% | 78.82 | 88.81 | 99.79 |
On assumptions, not a forecast, and not advice: the inputs are the company's own history, and the future need not repeat it.
Net income, as filed and projected
| Year | Growth | Net income |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16.2% | 9.72B |
| 2 | 14.6% | 11.13B |
| 3 | 13.1% | 12.59B |
| 4 | 11.8% | 14.07B |
| 5 | 10.6% | 15.56B |
How it is worked out
The figure is grown for each year of the horizon at a rate that fades, the multiple puts a market value on the last year's figure, and that value is divided over the share count as it will be by then. What that future price is worth today is it discounted at the return you want.
growth in year n = g × (1 − fade)n−1
figure in year n = figure in year n−1 × (1 + growth in year n)
future price = figure in year N × multiple ÷ (shares today × (1 + share change)N)
fair value = future price ÷ (1 + return wanted)N
The starting values are Telenor's own: the latest twelve months of the figure as filed, what it actually grew at over four years, the company's own five-year median multiple of it or today's if that is lower, and what its share count actually did. A model this simple is only as good as the assumptions put into it, and the most important one -- that the business keeps growing -- is the one no filing can tell you.