Swedbank (SWED-A.ST) fair value: SEK 203.05 a share
What is one share of Swedbank worth today if its net income keeps growing and the market keeps paying the multiple it has paid? Every starting value below comes from Swedbank's own filings and price history. Change any of them; nothing here is a forecast or advice.
What the price says
On its own net income, growing 11.9% a year and fading, valued at 7.1x in 5 years and discounted at 10%, one share of Swedbank is worth about SEK 203.05: 48% below the price of 387.70. Today's price assumes 30.5% growth a year on the same assumptions, against 11.9% a year over the last 4.0 years.
It trades at 14.1x its net income today, against a five-year median of 7.1x.
Its share count has risen 0.1% a year over five years.
How much the answer moves
Fair value a share, SEK, for the growth rate across and the return wanted down; everything else as above.
| Return wanted | 8.9% growth | 11.9% growth | 14.9% growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | 198.78 | 222.56 | 248.56 |
| 10% | 181.36 | 203.05 | 226.77 |
| 12% | 165.73 | 185.56 | 207.23 |
On assumptions, not a forecast, and not advice: the inputs are the company's own history, and the future need not repeat it.
Net income, as filed and projected
| Year | Growth | Net income |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11.9% | 36.67B |
| 2 | 10.7% | 40.60B |
| 3 | 9.7% | 44.53B |
| 4 | 8.7% | 48.40B |
| 5 | 7.8% | 52.19B |
How it is worked out
The figure is grown for each year of the horizon at a rate that fades, the multiple puts a market value on the last year's figure, and that value is divided over the share count as it will be by then. What that future price is worth today is it discounted at the return you want.
growth in year n = g × (1 − fade)n−1
figure in year n = figure in year n−1 × (1 + growth in year n)
future price = figure in year N × multiple ÷ (shares today × (1 + share change)N)
fair value = future price ÷ (1 + return wanted)N
The starting values are Swedbank's own: the latest twelve months of the figure as filed, what it actually grew at over four years, the company's own five-year median multiple of it or today's if that is lower, and what its share count actually did. A model this simple is only as good as the assumptions put into it, and the most important one -- that the business keeps growing -- is the one no filing can tell you.