Lundin Gold (LUG.ST) fair value: SEK 639.96 a share
What is one share of Lundin Gold worth today if its free cash flow keeps growing and the market keeps paying the multiple it has paid? Every starting value below comes from Lundin Gold's own filings and price history. Change any of them; nothing here is a forecast or advice.
What the price says
On its own free cash flow, growing 25.0% a year and fading, valued at 10.8x in 5 years and discounted at 10%, one share of Lundin Gold is worth about SEK 639.96: 3% below the price of 660.60. Today's price assumes 25.9% growth a year on the same assumptions, against 27.0% a year over the last 4.0 years.
It trades at 16.8x its free cash flow today, against a five-year median of 10.8x.
Its share count has risen 0.7% a year over five years, dilution that lowers each share's part.
How much the answer moves
Fair value a share, SEK, for the growth rate across and the return wanted down; everything else as above.
| Return wanted | 22.0% growth | 25.0% growth | 28.0% growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | 632.98 | 701.46 | 775.71 |
| 10% | 577.49 | 639.96 | 707.71 |
| 12% | 527.74 | 584.83 | 646.74 |
On assumptions, not a forecast, and not advice: the inputs are the company's own history, and the future need not repeat it.
Free cash flow, as filed and projected
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 25.0% | 11.79B |
| 2 | 22.5% | 14.45B |
| 3 | 20.2% | 17.37B |
| 4 | 18.2% | 20.54B |
| 5 | 16.4% | 23.91B |
How it is worked out
The figure is grown for each year of the horizon at a rate that fades, the multiple puts a market value on the last year's figure, and that value is divided over the share count as it will be by then. What that future price is worth today is it discounted at the return you want.
growth in year n = g × (1 − fade)n−1
figure in year n = figure in year n−1 × (1 + growth in year n)
future price = figure in year N × multiple ÷ (shares today × (1 + share change)N)
fair value = future price ÷ (1 + return wanted)N
The starting values are Lundin Gold's own: the latest twelve months of the figure as filed, what it actually grew at over four years, the company's own five-year median multiple of it or today's if that is lower, and what its share count actually did. A model this simple is only as good as the assumptions put into it, and the most important one -- that the business keeps growing -- is the one no filing can tell you.
Lundin Gold reports in USD and its shares trade in SEK. Its figures and its multiples are converted at one rate, 1 SEK = 0.0993 USD as at 2026-10-14, so a move in that rate over the five years shows up as a move in the multiple.